By Christophe Berenguer, Antoine Grall, Carlos Guedes Soares

Advances in defense, Reliability and probability administration comprises the papers offered on the twentieth eu defense and Reliability (ESREL 2011) annual convention in Troyes, France, in September 2011. The books covers a variety of subject matters, together with: twist of fate and Incident research; Bayesian tools; trouble and Emergency administration; choice Making lower than hazard; Dynamic Reliability; Fault analysis, diagnosis and Read more...

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Straub Engineering Risk Analysis Group, TU München, Germany ABSTRACT due to SPAD is constructed using FT and then translated into the BN shown in Figure 1. The two methods are compared with respect to different modeling and analysis aspects that are relevant for railways. Modern railway systems are equipped with automatic signaling as well as Train Protection and Warning Systems (TPWS) that control train movement and ensure the attention of the driver. In spite of reliable signaling and TPWS, trains are still passing red signals.

The proposed modeling approach is an integrated model that employs a Bayesian interpolation, a Gaussian density function and the DB method to efficiently calculate an unbiased estimate of failure probability of complex structural systems. The proposedmodeling approach also includes a new concept that relates global and local uncertainties (Rajabalinejad 2009). With these features, this novel approach makes it possible to obtain an unbiased estimatesusing the Monte Carlo methods. This integrated approach preserves fundamental properties of the classical MC method, while it greatly improves the computational efficiency by using prior information in a monotonic limit state equation (Rajabalinejad and Mahdi 2010).

Winther, R. & Natvig B. (2011). A Bayesian Hypothesis Testing Approach for Finding Upper Bounds for Probabilities that Pairs of Software Components Fail Simultaneously. To appear in International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering (IJRQSE). M. Hanea Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands M. Gheorghe iBMG / iMTA, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands copulae (Joe 1997). These conditional copulae, together with the one-dimensional marginal distributions, and the conditional independence statements implied by the graph uniquely determine the joint distribution, and every such specification is consistent.

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