By J. Van Doorn (auth.)

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E. the difference between ex-ante and ex-post savings (realised investment), is successively reduced to zero through variations in income. The importance of the dynamic multiplier is that it can show quite clearly which different conclusions will be reached when, for instance, the government intends to spend an extra amount, financed by a budget deficit, for one period only or as a continuing outlay. 3)) can, in the first case, only tell us that equilibrium levels of incomes both before and a while after the temporary investment injection will be equal.

7) which will enable us to find the income increment in each period and not equilibrium values only. The marginal propensity to spend is, on theoretical grounds, non-negative and not greater than one. All adjustment processes with a one-period delay are therefore stable processes. Mter a disturbance a new equilibrium is always found. 49 THE MULTIPLIER-ACCELERATOR MODEL The number of possible adjustment paths, generated by a dynamic multiplier process, is for realistic values of the marginal propensity to spend, given a simple one-period lag, rather small.

5) where ~I-' ~ 1. In the case where I-' = 0, suppliers have no confidence at all in the price forecasted by the government, and the model is reduced to the standard naIve Cobweb model. Suppliers prefer to rely on their own knowledge of history which extends to one period only. Suppliers on the other hand show blind confidence in the government's predictive ability and disregard their own experience completely in the case where I-' = 1. Hence pet = prt. 6) with a stability condition 1 The formal possibility of a correct public forecast was analysed by Grunberg and Modigliani [31].

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